{"id":8003,"date":"2018-01-08T09:13:51","date_gmt":"2018-01-08T15:13:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digitalblogs.wpengine.com\/?p=8003"},"modified":"2019-10-03T09:31:07","modified_gmt":"2019-10-03T14:31:07","slug":"end-year-market-performance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cainwatters.com\/digitalblogs\/end-year-market-performance\/","title":{"rendered":"A look at the end of year market performance and potential impact of the tax reform"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>This is an except from the CWA \u00a0monthly market update. <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cainwatters.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/01\/CWA-Monthly-Investments-Report-December-2017f.pdf\"><em>To view the report in full, click here.<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<p>John Maynard Keynes, the famous British economist who is responsible for Keynesian economics and its various offshoots, used the term \u201canimal spirits\u201d in his 1936 publication \u201cThe General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.\u201d\u00a0 This term was used to describe the human emotion that drives consumer confidence and investor behavior.<\/p>\n<p>In 2017, animal spirits were alive and well.\u00a0 The S&amp;P 500 recorded a 21.8% gain, despite beginning the year with the third highest valuation metric on record (as measured by the Shiller PE Ratio**).\u00a0 The S&amp;P 500 also recorded a gain in every month of the year which was the first time this has happened in recorded history, which is remarkable.\u00a0 International equities outpaced the U.S., posting a 24.6% gain as measured by the MSCI World Index.<\/p>\n<p>2017 was also a year in which Growth outperformed Value by a significant amount.\u00a0 However, these trends are historically mean reverting, and Value has outperformed Growth by 1.9% per year since 1926 (as measured by Fama and French, see disclosures+).\u00a0 We saw a similar period in 2015-2016, in which value underperformed, only to outperform the subsequent year.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_8005\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8005\" style=\"width: 899px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-8005 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.cainwatters.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/01\/bloomberg-chart.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"899\" height=\"480\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cainwatters.com\/digitalblogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/01\/bloomberg-chart.png 899w, https:\/\/www.cainwatters.com\/digitalblogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/01\/bloomberg-chart-768x410.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 899px) 100vw, 899px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-8005\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source:\u00a0 Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bond returns in the U.S. were 3.54% versus 7.39% for international bonds.\u00a0 Despite a year in which growth expectations were ratcheted up and the Fed raised rates several times, the 10-year U.S. Treasury ended with roughly the same yield as it began the year.\u00a0 The curve has been flattening, with longer-term Treasuries rallying.\u00a0 This typically signifies muted long-term inflation expectations, as well as the potential for a slowdown due to debt dynamics in the next 18-24 months.<\/p>\n<p>The new tax reform bill was passed in the 4<sup>th<\/sup> quarter, and it served to give a boost to an already ebullient stock market.\u00a0 Stocks began a \u201cmelt up\u201d pattern after it became clear we were on the doorstep of passing the reform.\u00a0 This melt up was characterized by historically low volatility and an appetite for risk that hasn\u2019t been witnessed since the late 1990s.\u00a0 The tax reform bill should help corporate earnings in 2018, thus lowering current multiples and giving stocks the potential to run back up to current P\/E valuation levels. There is also the potential for companies to repatriate capital (money held in foreign accounts by U.S. based companies) and there is a belief that this could lead to higher corporate spending and share repurchases \u2013 both of which are near term bullish for the market.<\/p>\n<p>The tax cut will likely also cause the trade deficit to rise \u2013 some estimate by as much as $1.8 trillion.\u00a0 This is also short-term bullish for the markets.\u00a0 Longer-term remains to be seen, however historically running lofty trade deficits has worked against growth and has led to recessions.<\/p>\n<p>The majority of the above comments are bullish, and the start of 2018 has seen the animal spirits continue.\u00a0 However, coupled with tax reform and market euphoria, the U.S. is entering what could prove to be a very volatile geopolitical environment.\u00a0 This past Tuesday, President Trump issued a tweet in which he bragged that the U.S. nuclear button is \u201cbigger and works\u201d as compared to the North Korean one.\u00a0 The market shrugged this comment off, but the comment is indicative of an environment that could lead to issues down the road.\u00a0 Tensions with Iran and European Brexit concerns are also alive and well, as are China\u2019s issues with their currency and property bubbles (although it appears the market is granting China a temporary reprieve).\u00a0 The market historically does not price in idiosyncratic events very well, and thus any of the above is a threat to the market at any given time.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, the animal spirits awoke at a time when the market was the most expensive it has been since the technology bubble of 2000 and right before the Great Depression (as measured by the Shiller PE ratio).\u00a0 While this ratio is not predictive of short term market movements, it has been historically predictive of lower than average returns for equities over the next 10 years when valuations have reached these levels.<\/p>\n<p>The geopolitical environment, combined with current market valuation levels, lead us to conclude that it is important to make sure sound risk management practices are in place.\u00a0 This does not mean that investors should sit on the sidelines \u2013 quite the contrary given the amount of good economic news on a global scale.\u00a0 It simply means that \u201ckeeping the eye on the ball\u201d is paramount, and to not let animal spirits take over and get in the way of good judgement.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h5><strong>Further Reading<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observer.com\/2017\/12\/president-trump-inherited-a-hegemon-in-decline-inflicted-more-damage\/\">The Year American Hegemony Ended<\/a>, <\/strong>Observer, December 31, 2017<\/p>\n<p>This article outlines the current geopolitical environment and how tenuous the US\u2019 hold as the global leader has become.\u00a0 This article describes a multitude of issues that we believe may impact markets over the near and intermediate term.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/article_email\/energy-investors-behold-the-miracle-of-the-tax-law-1513960315-kIyTDAtMU03QjJCMy0yNjM1Wj\/\">Energy Investors: Behold the Miracle of the Tax Law<\/a>,<\/strong> Wall Street Journal, December 22, 2017<\/p>\n<p>This article describes the favorable prospects to the energy industry from the new tax law.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>DISCLOSURES<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p><strong>PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE MARKET RETURNS.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Cain Watters is a Registered Investment Advisor. Request Form ADV Part 2A for a complete description of Cain Watters Advisors\u2019 investment advisory services. Diversification does not ensure a profit and may not protect against loss in declining markets. No inference should be drawn that managed accounts will be profitable in the future or that the Manager will be able to achieve its objectives. Investing involves risk and the possibility of loss, including a permanent loss of principal.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This commentary contains the opinions of the CWA Investment Committee at the time of publication and is subject to change. Market and economic factors can change rapidly, producing materially different results. This is not intended to be personalized investment advice. This does not take into account a particular investor\u2019s financial objectives or risk tolerances. Any specific mention of securities is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>**The CAPE ratio is a valuation measure that uses real earnings per share (EPS) over a 10-year period to smooth out fluctuations in corporate profits that occur over different periods of a business cycle. The ratio is generally applied to broad equity indices to assess whether the market is undervalued or overvalued. While the CAPE ratio is a popular and widely-followed measure, several leading industry practitioners have called into question its utility as a predictor of future stock market returns.\u00a0 The CAPE ratio, an acronym for Cyclically Adjusted P\/E (i.e. Price-Earnings) ratio, was popularized by Yale University professor Robert Shiller.\u00a0 It is also known as the Shiller P\/E ratio.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>+Statements relating to Value outperforming Growth are based upon the data of the Fama-French 3-Factor Model. A pioneering study by renowned academics, Eugene Fama and Ken French, suggesting that three risk factors: market (beta), size (market capitalization) and price (book\/market value) dimensions explain 96% of historical equity performance<\/em><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Use of Comparison Benchmark or Index: Indexes cannot be invested in directly. Index performance and statistics are provided for illustrative or comparison purposes and are chosen as commonly accepted representations of the performance of a particular segment of the market.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is an except from the CWA \u00a0monthly market update. To view the report in full, click here. John Maynard Keynes, the famous British economist who is responsible for Keynesian economics and its various offshoots, used the term \u201canimal spirits\u201d in his 1936 publication \u201cThe General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.\u201d\u00a0 This term was [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":8014,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[48],"class_list":["post-8003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A look at the end of year market performance and potential impact of the tax reform - Cain Watters Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cainwatters.com\/digitalblogs\/end-year-market-performance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A look at the end of year market performance and potential impact of the tax reform - Cain Watters Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This is an except from the CWA \u00a0monthly market update. To view the report in full, click here. 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